THE Royal Marines heading for Afghanistan face a protracted guerrilla war as al-Qaeda and Taleban forces begin to adopt classic, pro-active insurgency tactics, American and British defence sources said yesterday.
Vice-Admiral Thomas Wilson, director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency, said that the return of warmer weather in Afghanistan would increase the likelihood of attacks on the US-led coalition forces.
US troops at Khost airfield were attacked early yesterday by al-Qaeda and Taleban fighters armed with rocketpropelled grenades, mortars and machineguns. The airfield is only 45 miles east of the Shah-i Kot valley in Paktia province, where a US-led force has just completed Operation Anaconda after 17 days of fighting. An American soldier was wounded in the arm and three Afghans were said to have been killed.
Despite the warnings of guerrilla tactics, it is not yet clear whether the regrouped fighters are engaging in random attacks to strike back at the Americans, or whether they are building up to a more concerted attempt to undermine stability in the country.
Donald Rumsfeld, the US Defence Secretary, said last Friday that there was no serious security problem in Afghanistan. General Tommy Franks, in charge of the campaign, also said on a visit to Moscow yesterday that he believed security was under control. However, Vice-Admiral Wilson told the US Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday that the coalition forces had to be prepared for al-Qaeda and Taleban forces to change from terror tactics to insurgency warfare. Senior British defence sources agreed with Admiral Wilsonís assessment as the first contingent of Royal Marines from 45 Commando prepared to leave for Aghanistan this weekend to carry out a reconnaissance for Operation Jacana, the codename for their mission.
When the Royal Marines had settled in Afghanistan, the sources said, they would have to establish ways to synchronise their ground action with US air operations to ensure an effective offensive capability. The difference between Britainís new deployment and the troop contributions from other coalition partners, one said, was that the commandos would be a self-sustaining formation, rather than ìjust latching on to the American forcesî. This made it even more important to get the co-ordination right to avoid ìfriendly-fireî accidents.
Underlining the new threat posed by new al-Qaeda and Taleban tactics, George Tenet, director of the CIA, also warned the Armed Services Committee: ìYouíre entering into another phase here that actually is more difficult, because youíre probably looking at smaller units who intend to operate against you in a classic insurgency format.î
During the operation at Shah-i Kot the Americans estimated there were as many as 1,000 al-Qaeda and Taleban fighters defending their mountain hideouts. But in future they are expected to be a more elusive enemy and operate in much smaller units.
The British defence sources said that one of the problems was the constant possibility of large-scale al-Qaeda reinforcements arriving from neighbouring countries. ìTheyíre principally based in Pakistan and commuting to work,î one senior officer said.
During Operation Anaconda, according to Intelligence sources, a Pakistani commander left one section of the border open, allowing al-Qaeda and Taleban forces to escape. Mr Tenet said that the US had asked the governments of Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to deploy extra troops along their borders with Afghanistan.
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