Summary
Political opponents of many Middle Eastern governments may try to exploit the upcoming U.S. war with Iraq in an effort to challenge the current ruling regimes. Many governments in the region already are dealing with hostile opposition ranging from Islamists to wealthy elites who will jump eagerly on the issue of cooperation with Washington.
Analysis
A U.S. war against Iraq will create a host of opportunities and risks for the entire Middle East. There are many rivalries and competing factions in the region, with nearly every government — from Saudi Arabia to Egypt — facing a hostile opposition just waiting for a chance to turn the tables. As the United States ramps up for the war, key players in the region will begin to position themselves to take advantage of the coming instability.
The region's shifting political sands will make it that much more difficult for the United States to retain strong support from many Arab allies. As governments in the Middle East try to fend off challenges to their legitimacy, they will have less room to maneuver and therefore will be less able to back the U.S. war effort. Although this may not seriously hinder its military operations, it could complicate Washington's political strategy.
A case in point is Jordan. The ruling monarchy has allied itself closely with the United States and relies heavily on its economic ties with Washington as a source of financial stability. Although both Amman and Washington deny it, there is a good chance U.S. military forces will be based in the tiny kingdom in order to launch operations into western Iraq.
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