For the last month, the level of terrorist threat against Americans at home and overseas has remained higher than it was around Sept. 11, but U.S. intelligence agencies have been unable to narrow the threat to particular geographic locations and did not detect any heightened terrorist activity preceding Saturday's deadly bombing in Indonesia, U.S. intelligence officials said yesterday.
The perpetrators of the attack on Bali have not been identified, but U.S. officials said it appeared that the bombing represents the latest in a new wave of attacks being carried out or directed by a partially intact al Qaeda leadership and their sympathizers.
CIA stations around the world and foreign intelligence agencies working more closely with their American counterparts than at any time in recent history have received a flood of information about threats to Americans. But the information is usually so general or cryptic that it cannot be used to thwart a specific act.
"This has been coming in for a while now; people have been warning of all kinds of attacks," said a U.S. official with access to daily intelligence reporting.
A recorded call-to-arms broadcast on the al-Jazeera network Tuesday by the second-ranking al Qaeda leader, Ayman Zawahiri, threatened attacks "on America and its allies." The tape was released one day after an audiotape of Osama bin Laden was aired and in the midst of a string of attacks of a level unseen since Sept. 11, 2001.
They include what is believed to be a terrorist bombing Oct. 6 on a French oil tanker near Yemen, the shooting death of a Marine in Kuwait on Oct. 8, the bombing death of an Army Special Forces soldier Oct. 2 in the Philippines and other recent attacks against French and German targets in the Middle East. Law enforcement officials also have not ruled out the possibility that the Washington area sniper attacks, which have killed eight people and wounded two others, are connected to international terrorism.
The ranking member of the U.S. intelligence committee, Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.), said yesterday he believed the world may be witnessing a second wave of attacks by a reinvigorated al Qaeda. But, he added, the attacks are likely "to manifest themselves in a different way" because the organization is smaller and operating in a more decentralized fashion.
Shelby, who is regularly briefed by intelligence officials, said the level of "chatter," or communications being picked up from suspected terrorists and cells around the world, indicates the likelihood of more attacks, including large-scale ones, possibly on U.S. soil. He said the Indonesia attack was not surprising. "We know there are cells there," he said.
But, he added, the Bali bombing should be understood "in the context of recent events," other bombings in Yemen, Indonesia and elsewhere. "I'm sure there will be more."
Intelligence officials said they did not know who was behind the Bali bombing in which at least 180 people died but were certain its aim was to kill westerners and hurt the robust western-based tourism on the lush, largely Hindu island.
The Bali blast occurred on the second anniversary of the October 2000 suicide bombing of the USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden. Seventeen sailors died in the attack. The Cole's destruction has a key link to Indonesia: It was organized in part by Riduan Isamuddin, a key leader of Jemaah Islamiyah, the Asian version of al Qaeda.
After the Cole attack, Isamuddin, also known as "Hambali," fled Malaysia to Indonesia. Even after U.S. officials helped Indonesia locate Hambali, the Indonesian authorities did little to apprehend him and may have tipped him off to the search, a knowledgeable official said. Hambali fled and is believed to be in Pakistan.
Indonesia's approach to Hambali is representative of its mostly hands-off approach to terrorist groups inside the country, which is the largest Muslim nation in the world.
As a result, said U.S. officials and Asia experts, Indonesia has become fertile ground for launching terrorist attacks because it remains one of the few countries that have been unwilling to clamp down on domestic terrorist groups with known links to al Qaeda. As the worldwide manhunt for al Qaeda members continues, the organization has turned to Indonesia not only as a refuge but also as a platform from which to kill Americans and other westerners, these officials said.
"The Indonesians have steadfastly avoided doing anything with the domestic groups," said Robert Gelbard, who was U.S. ambassador to Indonesia until fall 2001. "There has been an utter lack of political will" from Jakarta.
Gelbard and other officials said Indonesian authorities have been "grudgingly" willing to apprehend foreign-born suspected terrorists, but neither the government nor the powerful, semi-autonomous Indonesian military have been willing to arrest many Indonesians suspected of terrorist activities. In part, Indonesia authorities fear a backlash, Gelbard said.
The U.S. embassies in Jakarta and a half-dozen other Southeast Asian cities were temporarily closed last Sept. 11 because intelligence agencies had detected a heightened threat of attack.
Yesterday, President Bush called the Bali attack "a cowardly act designed to create terror and chaos. We must together challenge and defeat the idea that the wanton killing of innocents advances any cause or supports any aspirations."
On CBS's "Face the Nation" yesterday, Maryland Gov. Parris N. Glendening (D), said there was no evidence linking the Washington area sniper shootings to international terrorism. "I do not, nor have I heard any suggestion from anyone that this is a formal terrorist organization in that sense," he said. "I will tell you, however, the net impact in many ways is the same, in that it brings terror into the communities and the individuals."
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