Odds-makers expend little effort weighing the chance that an Israeli government will live out its appointed term, probably because the probability of such a result may approach an even zero.
In fact, for over a decade there has been a sense of immutability to the untimely demise of ruling coalitions, a local Fourth Law of Gravity holding that every government, at the very moment that it is set in motion, begins to fall.
For the second Sharon government, a miscue in the drafting of legislation governing elections has decreed that - in the off chance that it survives - the term of the coalition installed in early 2003 will formally end in November 2006, a year less than originally expected.
But a complex set of political challenges appears to have all but assured that an even earlier end to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's current government is a matter of when, not if.
Sharon has spoken repeatedly of his desire to avoid early elections and to keep the bulk of his contentious present coalition intact, perhaps with the future addition of the Labor Party and of Shas.
Nonetheless, "MKs from the right and left, religious and secular, Jews and Arabs, all agree that the government will not complete its term and that elections for the 17th Knesset will be held during 2005," says Haaretz Knesset correspondent Gideon Alon.
At issue is perhaps the most volatile issue to come before the parliament in decades, Sharon's initiative for a withdrawal from the whole of the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the West Bank.
WHERE SHARON IS VULNERABLE
1. MINORITY GOVERNMENT
The prime minister entered the Knesset's winter session launch Monday with a minority government of 59 votes in the 120-seat house.
THE CAST: Last year, Sharon began his current term with a comfortable 67-seat majority. But the seven members of the far-right National Union jumped ship this year in a dispute over the disengagement plan, and two of the six National Religious Party legislators followed suit.
The NRP's six Knesset members have since split over the tactics by which the largely settler-run party is to fight the disengagement. Party chair Effi Eitam and predecessor Yitzhak Levy left the cabinet over the issue, their votes lost to Sharon.
For the present, Eitam's rival for NRP leadership, relative moderate Zevulun Orlev, has vowed to fight on from within the government.
THE CRUX: At the same time, Orlev has set a definite limit, declaring that he and his three remaining colleagues, including veteran settlement movement figure Nissan Slomiansky, will abandon the government as soon as Sharon goes beyond declarations and takes substantive steps in Knesset toward the disengagement.
THE TEST: On November 1, Sharon is to bring for Knesset approval a bill to grant settlers monetary compensation for leaving their homes. Orlev has set passage of this bill as the red line for continued membership in the ruling coalition. The final vote on the bill is expected to take place by November 25. At this point, Orlev said, the remainder of the NRP will leave the government. Sharon would then have a maximum of only 55 votes, many of them already beyond his command.
"In such a case, Sharon will probably initiate early elections himself, in order not to fall prey to a vote of no confidence over the approval of the state budget or a vote on a bill to dissolve the Knesset," Alon says.
2. LIKUD REBELS
Thus far, the thorniest battles over the disengagement have been fought within Sharon's own Likud. The "rebel" faction has handed the prime minister's initiative a series of stinging if largely symbolic intra-party defeats.
In a spring plebiscite, the Likud party rank-and-file voted overwhelmingly against the disengagement plan. Two months ago, the Likud Convention handed Sharon a double drubbing, formally barring him from, holding negotiations with Labor over a pro-disengagement unity government.
On Monday, in a move unprecedented in the nation's history, Sharon's traditional state of the nation address, opening the Knesset's winter session, was rejected by the Knesset in a 53-44 vote. The Likud rebels sat on their hands as their livid prime minister went down in symbolic flames.
Now, in the Knesset, comes the true joust. The rebels, many of whom are Likud back-benchers, would prefer not to see early elections, which, with a lackluster party showing, could cost them their seats. But they have vowed a fight to the end, a campaign set to begin this week with key no-confidence votes surrounding the disengagement.
THE CAST: Cabinet minister Uzi Landau, chair, ideologue and gray eminence; deputy cabinet minister Michael Ratzon, the two-fisted legislative whip of the rebels; lawmakers Ehud Yatom, Gila Gamliel, Ayoub Kara, Yehiel Hazan and Gilad Erdan.
THE CRUX: The wording of Knesset declarations regarding the disengagement. The rebels have said they will refrain from voting against the prime minister unless and until he asks legislators to expressly endorse a disengagement.
THE TEST: If Sharon makes his move, the rebels have said they believe they can marshal 10-15 "No" votes from within the 40-member Likud faction, a move which would likely topple the prime minister.
The move could come as early as October 25, when Sharon is slated to present the disengagement plan to the Knesset for approval the next day.
A number of other key votes are to follow. If, in any one of them, a majority votes against Sharon, regulations would likely compel the prime minister to step down in favor of an interim leader from within his own party. On this count, odds-makers are looking to Benjamin Netanyahu as the likely candidate.
3. THE BATTLE OF THE BUDGET
The great wild card of the disengagement struggle. In theory, Sharon must win approval of the 2005 State Budget by midnight, December 31, for his government to continue to function.
In practice, he has until March 31 to pass the budget in the Knesset. In the interim, the prime minister will be under strong pressure to ease the purse strings in order to curry favor with a range of possible supporting players in the house.
THE CAST: Shimon Peres and others in the Labor hierarchy, who will be sniffing the political wind in an effort to decide between joining a coalition with Likud or trying its luck in new elections.
Shas spiritual leader Ovadia Yosef and party chairman Eli Yishai, who, in apparent hopes of an overture by Sharon, have of late toned down earlier criticism of the disengagement plan.
Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party leaders, who might be persuaded to join the coalition, were the price right in religious-oriented legislation and a relaxation of social welfare cuts.
Perhaps most importantly, and least predictably, Finance Minister Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, and Education Minister Limor Livnat, all explicitly keen on eventually succeeding Sharon, all of them sitting skillfully on the disengagement fence, each monitoring the others, each poised to make a move.
THE CRUX: If Sharon is to entice Labor into a coalition - and if he succeeds in persuading his party to defy an earlier decision and come along - he will need to do so soon.
Ultra-Orthodox parties would be much easier for Likud activists to accept, but might not supply Sharon enough Knesset punch, or enough support for the actual disengagement, which he he promised to carry out by the end of next year.
THE TEST: If the prime minister is unable to pass the budget by the end of March, new elections, with Sharon conceivably still at the head of the Likud slate, could be held by the end of May or, by other estimates, in late June.
PM'S OPTIONS: THE RABBITS IN THE HAT
If Sharon is to hang on to the present government, he still has options. In Alon's view, they include:
1. A decision by the prime minister to back down from the disengagement plan.
2. A reversal of his opposition to holding a referendum on the disengagement issue.
3. Finding a way to have Labor join the crumbling coalition.
The survival of the current government may still be a realizable goal. But Sharon may find the unknown variable of new elections preferable to the available options for keeping the government intact.
WHERE SHARON IS SHACKLED
Hours after his Knesset humiliation this week, Sharon launched a campaign to land new coalition partners, targeting Labor, with its 19 seats, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox Shas, with 11, and the Ashkenazi Haredi United Torah Judaism, with five.
In each case, however, Sharon faces political crosswinds that could foil the search for an altered coaltion.
Shas and United Torah have bitterly feuded with Sharon's ultra-secular current partner Shinui for years. Were the haredim to join the government, this might come at the considerable cost of Shinui's 15 seats.
The ultra-Orthodox also oppose on principle ceding any land in the West Bank and Gaza. But rabbis in both Shas and United Torah Judaism have indicated that they could show some flexibility on this issue, if it were proven that the disengagement could save Israeli lives.
Finally, Labor is staunchly opposed to the current government's economic plan, an issue that could prove a deal-breaker in coalition negotiations, even if Likud activists allowed Sharon to skirt their declared ban on such talks.
www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=487326&displayTypeCd=1&sideCE-mail this article