Northern Iraq Could Become Second Palestine

The United States is taking the initiative in the postwar reconstruction of Iraq. The U.S.-led venture, however, could trigger a new Middle East crisis.

Oil resources, which hold the key to the reconstruction effort, are concentrated in the northern and southern parts of the country. Shiites comprise the largest religious group in Iraq, and the authority that represents them, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution, has clearly opposed the establishment of a U.S.-backed government.

If southern Iraq, the Shiites' stronghold, refuses to take part in an interim government, it will be difficult to build a unified nation.

The northern territory, which holds the Kirkuk oil fields, is inhabited mostly by Kurds who support U.S. forces. The area is a major oil production base, like the Rumailah oil fields in the south. France and Russia are both eyeing oil rights in the region.

At the moment, the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan are calling for Iraq to be reassembled as a federation offering them a considerable degree of autonomy. But both are sure to demand concessions on the Kirkuk oil fields.

Turkey, which shares a border with Iraq, wants to prevent the establishment of a neighboring Kurdish state and is monitoring Kurds looking to expand their influence. Turkey is concerned that a Kurdish separatist or independence movement in Iraq could spread to its own sizable Kurdish population.

Even before the outbreak of the war, the Turkish military was warning that it would deploy in North Iraq if Kurdish forces were to take over Kirkuk. In early April, the U.S. administration struck a deal with Turkey in which the Turks would put off a military foray into Iraq. In exchange, the United States promised to keep the Kirkuk oil fields and the city of Mosul independent from Kurdish forces.

Eager to head off a military clash in the north, Western nations welcomed the agreement. By agreeing to the conditions, however, the U.S. government essentially took control of the region around the oil fields. Even if Kurdish self-rule takes root and expands, in other words, the area would remain under strong U.S. influence.

That could trigger a new crisis. From the viewpoint of Middle Eastern nations, the United States appears to be positioning itself to seize oil rights and dominate the north under the guise of supporting the Kurds.

Such a scenario, however, would fundamentally alter the Mideast geopolitical power structure as we know it. Even Turkey, traditionally an American ally, is certain to reject it.

In addition to Turkey, Islamic hard-liners and Arab nationalists are expected to intensify their resentment of the Kurds, in this case for abetting U.S. efforts to colonize the region.

Without control of the oil fields, the Kurds have no way of achieving economic independence. Yet if they acquire oil rights in the region, they are destined to clash with Arab Iraqis. Instability in northern Iraq, moreover, would give Turkish forces an excuse to advance.

The war to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein has ended.

But if the United States insists on claiming oil rights in the process of setting up a new government, it will not only stand in the way of Iraqi unification but could also seriously damage its relations with surrounding countries.

Throughout history, the Middle East has been ravaged by foreign powers scrambling to seize its resources and annex its land. No matter the stated objective of reconstruction efforts, the people of the region do not want history to repeat itself.

We must not forget how Britain tried to rule Palestine under the pretext of fostering Jewish independence. That enterprise, which led to the foundation of Israel, continues to vex Palestine to this day.

If a Kurdish administration emerges in northern Iraq under de facto U.S. control, a "second Palestinian problem" could arise.

The international community must not be blinded by the moral cause of rebuilding a democratic Iraq into forgetting the dangers of a new Middle East crisis.