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Strategic Forecasting (StratFor)

Austin, Tex., United States of America — www.stratfor.com

Analysis: US Strategy, Perception vs. Deception

STAFF | Strategic Forecasting | July 21, 2003

"The media loves the trivial and can't grasp the significant. If the United States fabricated evidence about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq as critics are claiming, the question is not whether it did so. The question is: Why did it do so? In other words, why was invading Iraq important enough to lie about — if indeed it was a lie, which is far from clear." [more]

Analysis: US-Iraq War Will Fuel Political Rivalries

STAFF | Strategic Forecasting | September 26, 2002

"Political opponents of many Middle Eastern governments may try to exploit the upcoming U.S. war with Iraq in an effort to challenge the current ruling regimes. Many governments in the region already are dealing with hostile opposition ranging from Islamists to wealthy elites who will jump eagerly on the issue of cooperation with Washington." [more]

Analysis: The Profits and Pitfalls of War in Iraq

STAFF | Strategic Forecasting | September 24, 2002

"While the global energy picture has changed much since 1990, one thing is certain: Once it becomes apparent that Washington will settle for nothing less than the ouster of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, oil prices will spike." [more]

Analysis: Situation Deteriorating Rapidly in Afghanistan

STAFF | Strategic Forecasting | August 28, 2002

"As in the Soviet case, it took a year for the opposition to coalesce, spreading slowly across the country's various factions. The gradual strengthening of the rebel forces was then followed by attacks on the Soviets' Afghan allies, who presented soft targets. This forced the Soviet troops to take charge of security operations themselves, destroying the illusion of partnership with a local regime. The pattern is repeating itself." [more]

Analysis: US Expanding Involvement In Sudan

STAFF | Strategic Forecasting | March 15, 2002

"Since Sept. 11, Washington has tried to re-establish a working relationship with Khartoum in order to gather intelligence on Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network, which once operated out of Sudan. U.S. special envoy and former senator John Danforth has traveled to the country to mediate peace talks, and the Nuba cease-fire is a direct result of these efforts." [more]

Analysis: The Questionable Outcomes of Operation Anaconda

STAFF | Strategic Forecasting | March 12, 2002

"Ultimately Operation Anaconda will not finish off al Qaeda or even the Taliban fighters. Instead it signals the beginning of a protracted guerrilla war that will allow Afghanistan to continue to serve as sanctuary for al Qaeda. A guerrilla war ó against which the United States has found only one effective answer, overwhelming air power ó also could affect Washington's timeline for fighting terrorism in other parts of the world." [more]

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