ISTANBUL, Turkey, Jan. 21 — Every day, sometimes more than once, anti-war protesters gather here in Istanbul — each time attracting swarms of police.
Public demonstrations are severely restricted here, but the depth of anti-war feeling is strong and growing. "We don't want war anwhere," said one protest organizer. "Especially not next to our country."
A new poll shows that 79 percent of people here oppose a U.S.-led attack on Iraq. Fewer than 10 percent want Turkey to allow the U.S. to attack Iraq from Turkish military bases. Memories are still raw here of the flood of refugees and economic hardship that followed the Gulf War.
Turkey's cooperation would be essential for opening up a northern front on Iraq. And on Monday, Chairman of the Joint chiefs of staff Gen. Richard Myers met his Turkish counterpart to continue to press U.S. demands for access.
He said the U.S. is not growing impatient with Turkey's refusal so far to grant permission, but privately, U.S. military officials say time is running out.
It's in this environment that Turkey will convene a summit of regional leaders later this week to discuss ways to avert war.
"The people are sending a strong message to the government: stop the war," said Prof. Nilufer Narli, head of the Sociology Department at Marmara University in Istanbul. "And I think governments are responding. We should try all the channels and all the means of communication to stop the war."
11th-Hour Attempt
They are responding with an 11th-hour attempt at peace. Saudi Arabia is reportedly proposing amnesty for all but Saddam Hussein's inner-most circle, hoping to spark a coup against him.
Several countries in the region are working to push the Iraqi leader into exile, and guarantee his security, in exchange for a peaceful exit from power.
"In this summit, leaders will get together and they will make an appeal to Saddam," said Narli. "It all depends on Saddam. If he accepts, then there will be no problem. But I don't find it very realistic."
In Ankara Monday, Gen. Myers said the U.S. is open to these initiatives. "I don't think anybody in their right mind ever thinks about conflict as being the preferred alternative. Diplomacy is the preferred alternative," he said. "Certainly nobody wants conflict, least of all those of us in uniform."
On Monday in Beirut, senior Iraqi envoy Ali Hassan al-Majid dismissed any talk of exile. "This is all nonsense," he said. "It's part of psychological warfare against us."
Analysts say the Saudi plan is the more realistic option, because it aims to drive a wedge between Saddam's inner circle and his generals, who would be keen to avoid a war with the U.S. they'll almost undoubtedly lose.
Many analysts say the exile plan is far-fetched because it would be nearly impossible to convince the Iraqi leader that his safety could be guaranteed in any country.
"I think the idea that somehow Saddam Hussein would retire into graceful exile and sit out his days on the beach somewhere is again, spectacularly naïve," said Prof. Toby Dodge, a Middle East Analyst at Warwick University.
In the end, Dodge says, the efforts are meant to convince their populations they're doing everything they can to find a peaceful solution. "So when the war comes they'll shrug and say 'well, we tried. Nothing we can do now,' " he said. "So I think it's a lot to do with public relations and little to do with international diplomacy."
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